Tag Archives: India

INDIA AND IT’S TROUBLING NEIGHBOURS!!!!!!!!

I grew up in an era where the relations between India and Pakistan were  low,the people of Pakistan whom I knew were the members of the Pakistan cricket team.I never knew about the wars which had taken place between India and Pakistan before Kargil.(the previous wars being-The war of 1947 and 1965(Kashmir wars).The Indians who grew up in the decade of 1990-2000 will know how important a match is between India and Pakistan,how can we forget the match between India V/S Pakistan during the 1996 world cup in Bangalore,How can we forget the over of Waqar Younis which Ajay Jadeja whacked all around the park with his gifted willow and  how can we forget Aamir Sohail ,who whacked the previous ball for a boundary  and gestured at Venkatesh Prasad with his bat the next ball will go in the direction of  cover for a six only to see his off stump flying around .Such was the intensity of the match that the whole of Bangalore was deserted after 14:00hrs,in fact our school was suspended @ 13:45hrs,so that we could be part of a historic match.The celebrations began @ 23.30 when India won,a sound which thudded and made me curious if a gas cylinder bursted in my neighbour’s house,but it was a cracker shouted my mom who was outside.The very fact that goosebumps arouse in me when I type , speaks volumes about this epic match.

My memory goes back to 1999 ,it was the beginning of the academic year CLASS VIII and I was part of the peace march which took place from our school and which culminated near the GANDHI statue ,MG ROAD,Bangalore.Holding a placard which conveyed “WE WANT PEACE”,I wasn’t sure whose fault was it which led to a war.I wasn’t told by my teachers that it was the fault of  Pakistan Army who disguised themselves in the form of Kashmiri militants who infiltrated into India occupied Kashmir,was I told about the facts I wouldn’t have touched the placard.It was the last cricket world cup of the 19th century,another epic match took place between India and Pakistan which took  place  amidst Kargil war in United Kingdom.The soldiers of both sides would have plugged into their transistors  even while fighting to keep themselves motivated when every wicket falls or a four/six been hit by their national heroes.The cinema halls in India stopped screening the  movies and started showing the match and you could feel the patriotism which was traveling like a virus from Kashmir to Kanyakumari.The match had another record,it had the highest no of viewers glued to their televisions till date.

When I look back at the facts of Kargil war,we could have blocked the LOC (Line of control) ,which would have resulted in cutting the supply of arms and ammunition for the disguised Pakistan jihadi military force.We didn’t do that because we always kept up our word and promise.It came as a shock for us ,because our former PM Vajpyee went on a historical bus visit to Pakistan three weeks before the Kargil war took place,wherein the whole world welcomed this peace process.With respect to Kashmir issue ,I have a simple answer,before the separation of the so called MUSLIM NATION which later came to be known as PAKISTAN,they were a part of us.I can make an assumption from the above statement which in fact acts as a premise with the conclusion being  Kashmir belongs to India.The Valley will be a part of India and nobody can stop India from protecting it.People from POK are being motivated by the so called institutions of Pakistan .They have attacked Indian cities which resembles India’s prosperity and will continue to attack unless we strengthen our internal security.

Come to the eastern side of India,another troubling neighbour, CHINA,who is worried about India’s growing presence in South East Asia and the world.The Indo-China war which was due to the fact that China claiming that Arunachal Pradesh belongs to China,infact very recently the Chinese newspaper carried an article which said that Arunachal Pradesh belongs to China,and we had some diplomatic dialogues flying past the border a couple of months ago.The Chinese are very much worried about the growing presence of India and the relationship the Indians are very much enjoying with UNCLE SAM.They want to suppress us in the region so that the whole world can look up to China in South East Asia.Last week an article carried in the Chinese mouthpiece on Mumbai terror attacks,which stated the terrorists where from within India and not from Pakistan,giving Pakistan a breather saying we are there for you and strengthening their border with Pakistan so that no terrorists from Pakistan can attack them,I have an adjective for them ,”THE CUNNING CHINESE”.The world could see the Chinese worried, when India entered into a civilian nuclear agreement with UNCLE SAM,objecting it at Vienna.

Although India helped in the creation of Bangladesh(erstwhile known as East Pakistan) which had differences with the West Pakistan(now Pakistan).They are helping Pakistan in the name of religion and attacking India.Indians have given too much space to Bangladesh,the reason why India is not taking strong action against Bangladesh is because India is worried about situation where Pakistan will take advantage.

Down South,Sri Lanka is fighting the LTTE to take control of their country.The problem here is people from Tamil Nadu are supporting for the cause of Tamil.There are many instances where India has been under fire for supporting them.Especially the politicians of Tamil Nadu who are very much supportive of LTTE.Sri Lankan Government believes in close relationship with India which is a very good gesture.They are not worried about their relationship with India as long as India doesn’t interfere in protecting their country.

Why is UNCLE SAM(USA) tilting towards India even though they are an ally of Pakistan,they know Pakistan Army and ISI will anyway help in protecting the terrorists(AL-Qeda and Taliban) who will move inside Pakistan in another couple of years with the help of Pakistan Army and ISI,they need a launching pad to kill these terrorists before another attack in the US,so they need India’s territory and support to root out terrorism.Uncle SAM knows that the funds for the Pakistan Army are being used to strengthen their western borders against India.Uncle SAM is in a tricky situation right now,it will need India’s help in another couple of years,so Uncle SAM has already conveyed an indirect message to India, which will keep Pakistan worried.

All these things wouldn’t have been posted ,had the Mumbai attacks not taken place.We know Uncle SAM needs India’s support not only with respect to Military but also economically.They know India’s presence in the future as India will call all the shots in the future with respect to the world.I wouldn’t be surprised if an Indian descendant becomes the president of USA.

India needs to tighten its internal security,setting up of FIA(Federal Investigation Agency) with no political influence and lot of powers vested with them and to take any call they would like to irrespective of any state,(although Police is be a state subject in india).The left is already up with its plan to oppose any centralization of power,as they believe each state can call its own shots.

My next post will focus on Internal security for which I need to give a lot of thought process and facts.

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Fall of LEHMAN BROS!!!!!!!!!!

I had a discussion with Vignesh the other day(Student,XLRI) with respect to the “WALL STREET CRISIS” and our discussion was as follows:

me:the next crisis is Credit default swap crisis and Credit Card crisis,American assholes wanna party on others money.

VїĢŋËŠħ: haha, the entire world has to save america man, else we all fucked, royally

me:but they shld have had a gud regulation system,dude lending to poor credit guys was a dumb thing,and tht too huge sums of money.

VїĢŋËŠħ: that’s the point man, these fuckers have made the whole operation so goddamn complex, bundled in fuck all shit and sold them to other countries, quite the bastards they are

me: some of the accounting and valuation practices are pretty strange Vick

VїĢŋËŠħ: yea man, they give it to fucking fresh outta college b school grads who are all high on                    hormones, they do a lot of random shit, and it ended up like this, supervision and control is the                key, the fucking regulators were sucking ont thses guys dicks till it caved in

me: hahaha, infact the Federal did encourage of lending to sub prime guys so tht there is economic activity

VїĢŋËŠħ: alan fucking greenspan(former federal reserve chairman), bastard ought to be strung up by his balls

me: one of the things in India is people feel ashamed if they default,thts got to do with out moral values

VїĢŋËŠħ: mm… the problem with america is the root of capitalism is the idea of directed greed working towards profits, so the system is pretty much built on greed, combine that with no or little regulation, perfect recipe for disaster

me: all the top B-school grads will look forward for a domestic job,it will a lot of pressure on other B-school guyswith respect to placements

VїĢŋËŠħ: yea

but for the most part, indian b school grads pretty much always stay in india, so it might not really impact their placements greatly, i mean, all the big companies from abroad might not offer the same huge salaries, but lesser

me: the Psychology of human being is they will look for a safe haven,so I doubt they will join MNC’s ,at least for the next 2 years,so all demand will be for domestic placements which will offer them a financial security

VїĢŋËŠħ: yea i guess

So did a research on why did Lehman Brothers fail???some of the facts are follows(Courtesy :Economic times of India and some added Inputs from me),

How can a bank like Lehman go down so fast?

Financial markets can be punishing and reversal of fortunes can be dramatic. More so, if an institution is overleveraged — when loan and investment books are much, much bigger than its capital.
What compounds problems are strange accounting practice and high-risk nature of the loans and investments.There are also disclosure issues: Lehman, in its last conference call with investors, gave no clue that it was actually on the brink.

How did the crisis build up?

An investment bank uses its proprietary book (own money) to lend others and invest. It started with the subprime crisis. Banks like Lehman, buy mortgage loans from other banks, and then package them to sell bonds against the loan pool. Often they add cash to make the loan pool more attractive, so that the bonds can be sold at a higher price.

Suppose mortgage was earning 6%, these bonds are sold at 4%. The difference is the spread which the investment bank earns. By selling these structured bonds, it raises money and frees capital. But when homebuyers started defaulting, these bonds lost their value. It all began like this, and then the virus spreads across markets.

How does the domino effect play out?

Suppose Lehman faces a redemption and has to repay another bank it has borrowed from.
If it sells the mortgage-backed bonds, whose prices have fallen, it will not raise as much as was earlier expected.So, it sells some of the other good assets or bonds which may have nothing to do with mortgages.But since the bank starts dumping these assets, prices of these bonds also dip.
This is when the crisis spreads from subprime to prime.

How does it impact the balance-sheet?

Herein lies the strange accounting of bonds and derivatives like mortgage-backed securities. All banks are required to mark-to-market (MTM) their investments.So, if the price of an instrument falls, the difference between the price at which it was bought and the current market price has to be provided — meaning, it has to be deducted from the earnings.So, a drop in price leads to the MTM loss. But there’s a bigger problem which really has deepened the crisis.An MTM loss can be provided only if there’s a ‘market’. How do you provide when there is no market?

But aren’t these instruments traded? How can the market suddenly vanish?

Remember, it’s very different from checking the price of a stock from a stock exchange website. Many of the instruments are over-the-counter derivatives, which are struck on a one-to-one basis between two parties.Suppose, a derivative is linked to variables like the yen-dollar rate, and may be prices of other actively-traded assets, say gold price and US Treasury bill.What the bank does is construct a model, feeds the available market price of these variables in the computer, to arrive at what the market price of the derivatives could or should be.This is an artificial model-generated price. This is called the mark-to-model against mark-to-market.

So, what’s wrong in that?

The trouble is when the bank actually goes out to sell the derivatives, it discovers that there are no takers. And, even if there are buyers, they are willing to pay just a fraction.In other words, there is a sea of difference between the price that is being offered in the market and the high artificially-generated price thrown up by the model.So, when the bank ends up selling the instrument or unwinding derivatives, the loss suffered is far in excess of the mark-to-model loss.Such extra losses on thousands of securities and multiple portfolios can wipe out the capital of the bank.

What is the nature of the instruments?

There are collateralised debt obligation (CDOs), credit default swaps (CDSs) and all kinds of derivatives. CDOs are asset (or loan)-backed securities, while CDSs are like a guarantee.Say Bank A lends to a corporate but is unwilling to take the full credit risk. So, Bank A enters into a CDS deal with Bank B; under this, Bank B promises to pay Bank A if the corporate defaults. The money that Bank B earns for this is the CDS premium, which is similar to an insurance premium.Now, if markets turn choppy, risks go up and so does the CDS premium. So, Bank B, which is earning a lower premium has to promote a mark-to-market loss against the CDS position.

How does one minimise such turmoil?

Maybe, some of the accounting norms need to be changed, so that the definition of MTM gets narrowed down.Besides, to stop banks from going overboard, capital requirement may have to be raised for derivatives position.
But all this may be easier said than done.

In my next post I would be reporting on “THE EFFECT OF WALL STREET CRISIS  ON INDIA”…………………..WHAT’S THE ROAD AHEAD FOR DALAL STREET…..

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Breaking News:Terrorists Strike Once Again

Breaking News:Bomb Blasts rocks another city -Delhi.Are we Immunized to this statement every three months on the news channels????I would say yes,its just another day at the bomb office,life has to move on.I was shocked for one reason,when people where hit by the bomb,I saw all the channels trying to increase their “TRP’s” by showing the victims lying around instead of showing some kindness to Humanity,Would it be the same if any one of their relatives were lying around???.I need an answer from “NBA”, and there should be some guidelines laid by the I&B ministry,I do agree you need to cover the news,but to what extent,at the cost of many lives????Come on Guys show some respect to fellow beings.Whenever a blast happens the media tries to squeeze in at the spot which hampers the investigation process,Everyone needs to play their part,so it needs a lot of cooperation from people of all walks of life.

The other aspect which I would like to address here is the challenge by terrorist organization,I think all that matters is people helping out,like the e.g of providing water which brought tears down my eyes,These type of small acts should be our response.

Coming to the political aspect,my memory goes back to Gujarat & Bangalore blasts where we had a discussion on our channel,one of the finest points raised by Ram(Historian) who said that we need to have Central Autonomy with respect to the Department of Police,but the sad part is every Government wants have a grip of things.It doesn’t serve any purpose by changing the commissioner,with the technology advancing and terrorists becoming more tech friendly,we need Cyber experts,why can’t we have private experts??we can hire people from Infosys,Wipro ,etc who will work very secretly with the Govt or an Autonomous Institution.These are the small things which will advance our security system.

But all our netas can do is Immediately condemn the attack which our Media will highlight it in bold!!!Constitute a committee tomorrow to look into the attacks,and submit a report by within 15 days,unfortunately that will taken somewhere between 2-3 month.Call for an all party meeting wasting my money(I have paid tax) in the form refreshments.All the changes which are expressed will happen after 10 years,Am looking forward to the next generation netas (youth)who will address all the Issues.

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